Open your mind to the future

Mikko Dufva, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training, at Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund.

“Foresight work involves three plus one steps,” explains Mikko Dufva, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training, at Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund. “First, we need to understand what is changing in the world and see the big picture. Second, we identify and challenge our assumptions about these changes – otherwise, we’ll always end up doing the same things! Third, we imagine alternative futures. We deliberately give ourselves the space to imagine something else. In the plus one step, we use the information we’ve gathered and the ideas we’ve come up with to make better decisions. This enables us to act differently and connect our thinking to the present day.”

Challenge and change your thinking

“We definitely need changes in our thinking. But we need to catch up first. As the futurist Alex Steffen said, ‘We are not ready for what has already happened.’ We need to understand that many things have already happened – for example, the climate has already changed, and AI is already here. Furthermore, the future we were promised isn’t coming. This doesn’t mean that the future will be worse, but it will be different. We need to act now to create futures that are better in ways we haven’t even thought of.”

Imagine more than one possible future

“I deal with a whole range of different futures in my work. These can be inspiring or scary or any number of other things, but they’re all worth exploring. One way of thinking about this is to look at your own or your company’s behavior. Can it exist in the future? Is it leading to your preferred future? If not, you need to change it somehow, or the operating environment will force you to change anyway.”

We need a shift in mindset to recognize what has already changed.

Think about ecosystems

“What we do now influences the future. Nobody can dictate what the future will be, but everyone can influence it, especially if they work together. That’s why I think innovation ecosystems are definitely a good approach. The global challenges are so huge that they require a joint effort. I would also challenge how we think about ecosystems. We shouldn’t just think about companies’ ecosystems but about something more diverse that includes various stakeholders like the public, communities, NGOs, governments, and so on. We can’t make big changes happen by ourselves, but amazing things can happen when we work together.”

“I see a regenerative way of thinking emerging, going beyond sustainability to how we can repair the damage we’ve already done.”

“I also like the word ‘ecosystem’ because it conveys the idea that we’re living in nature. We should shift our perspective to think about how we can work with it. That’s how I see ecosystem thinking.”

Transformative resilience

“We can’t be prepared for everything. Again, it’s a mindset shift. We need to accept that we’ll be living in a time of surprises. The best way to do this is to aim for renewal and learn from crises to create something future-proof that addresses the root problems and is more in line with our values.”

“The term for this is ‘Transformative resilience.’ It isn’t about just bouncing back but actually learning and thinking about how to transform as a company, individual, or society. For example, how can we change business models so they’re more circular while tackling global supply chain problems?”

What if the future was brighter?

“In foresight work, you need a diversity of ideas and a culture that makes it okay to have different views. One tool from futurist thinking is to identify weak signals of change and use them to ask the ‘what if?’ questions. For example, what if there was no electricity? These can be plausible scenarios for seeing how well prepared we are.”

Research shows that companies that practice foresight are more successful.

“However, foresight isn’t all doom and gloom – it’s also about identifying opportunities. For example, you could ask ‘what if?’ about workplaces. What if workplaces became a haven for wellbeing, a place where people liked to go to feel better and for a sense of community? Reframe your perspective and rethink things.”

Foresight pays off

“I’m happy and inspired that many companies are taking a lead in solving issues. CSR has become mainstream, and some companies are going beyond it, increasingly seeing themselves as part of the solution.”

“I’m also optimistic about the circular economy and nature-based solutions. For example, New York uses wetlands to manage their water resources instead of building water purification plants. It’s very cost-effective, but people haven’t been used to thinking that perhaps we should work with nature.”

“Future thinking isn’t mystical. It’s something that really benefits companies. Research shows that companies that practice foresight grow better and are more profitable. If you want to get started with future thinking yourself, the Sitra website has lots of materials to help you,” Dufva concludes. 

Text Peter Cura